notluck / Sports betting

Sports betting loss calculator

Sportsbooks build a margin into every line. See what the "vig" adds up to when you bet every week.

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Estimated loss

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Lucky player top 10%

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Average player the middle

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Unlucky player bottom 10%

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Chance of profit

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Estimates based on the RTP and pace you entered. Lucky and unlucky outcomes are approximate. How the numbers work

Your balance over time

    Sports betting odds and house edge

    Standard line: 1.91 / -110 / 10/11 on both sidesMargin 4.55%
    Break-even win rate at 1.9152.4% of bets
    Parlays (six US states, 2025)Sportsbooks kept 18.6% of money bet
    How to use the calculatorBets per hour × hours per session = bets per session
    Average cost per hour at $20.00 a bet$1.82 ($40.00 wagered)

    Most evenly matched bets, like point spreads and totals, are priced at 1.91 in decimal odds, -110 in American odds or 10/11 in fractional odds. They all mean the same thing: you risk $110 to win $100, where a fair price would be 2.00. At that price, if your picks are a coin flip, you lose about 4.55% of everything you stake, and you have to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even.

    Parlays multiply the margin on every leg. In the six US states that publish parlay figures, sportsbooks kept 18.6% of all money bet on parlays in 2025, about four times the margin on a standard single bet. Pick "Parlays" in the calculator above to see what a parlay habit costs.

    Some skilled bettors do beat the margin, but sportsbooks limit or close winning accounts. Most bettors lose over time.

    Expected loss = bet × bets per hour × hours played × house edge

    House edges for table games and video poker are exact, worked out from the rules. Slot RTPs vary by game and casino. Bets per hour are estimates, so change them to match how you play. The lucky and unlucky lines are an approximation showing the top and bottom 10% of players.

    Sources

    1. InGame: 2025 was not kind to (most) sports bettors

    FAQ

    What do 1.91, -110 and 10/11 mean?

    The same price in decimal, American and fractional odds. You bet $110 to win $100 (or €1 to win about €0.91). On an even matchup a fair price would be 2.00; the difference is how the sportsbook makes money.

    Can you beat sports betting?

    A small minority can, but sportsbooks limit the stakes of winning accounts or close them. For most bettors the margin wins out.

    Are parlays a good bet?

    No. The margin compounds on every leg, so parlays carry much higher house edges than single bets.

    Do you take money from casinos?

    No. notluck has no casino affiliates and no gambling ads.

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