notluck / Blackjack

Blackjack loss calculator

Blackjack has one of the lowest house edges in the casino, but only if you play perfectly at a table with good rules. See what it costs either way.

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Estimated loss

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Lucky player top 10%

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Average player the middle

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Unlucky player bottom 10%

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Chance of profit

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Estimates based on the RTP and pace you entered. Lucky and unlucky outcomes are approximate. How the numbers work

Your balance over time

    Blackjack odds and house edge

    House edge, perfect basic strategyAbout 0.3–0.7%, depending on the rules
    6:5 blackjack payoutAdds 1.39% to the house edge
    Typical paceAbout 50 hands an hour at a full table; over 200 playing alone
    VolatilityVery low (standard deviation 1.15 per hand)
    Average cost per hour at $10.00 a bet$3.00 ($600.00 wagered)

    With perfect basic strategy and good rules, blackjack costs well under 1% of what you bet. The calculator uses 0.5%. Most players don't play perfectly, and every mistake raises the edge. There's no reliable figure for how much, so try 98.5% or 98% RTP in the calculator to see what a few mistakes could cost.

    Check what a blackjack pays. Tables that pay 6:5 instead of 3:2 add 1.39% to the house edge, which makes the game several times more expensive. Pick "6:5 table" in the calculator above to compare.

    How fast you lose depends on how many people are at the table. Alone with the dealer you can play over 200 hands an hour, roughly four times as many as at a full table, so your hourly cost is about four times higher too.

    Card counting can tip the odds, but casinos use many decks and continuous shufflers, and ask counters to leave. Online games reshuffle constantly, so counting doesn't work there.

    Expected loss = bet × bets per hour × hours played × house edge

    House edges for table games and video poker are exact, worked out from the rules. Slot RTPs vary by game and casino. Bets per hour are estimates, so change them to match how you play. The lucky and unlucky lines are an approximation showing the top and bottom 10% of players.

    Sources

    1. Wizard of Odds: House edge of casino games compared
    2. Wizard of Odds: Blackjack rule variations
    3. GWW: Why blackjack shuffle frequency changes the flow of a live table (Kilby figures)

    FAQ

    Can you beat blackjack?

    Only with card counting under specific conditions, and casinos ban players who do it. Online, the deck is reshuffled so often that counting is impossible.

    Should I take insurance?

    No. Basic strategy says to decline insurance every time. It is a side bet that loses money over time.

    Does basic strategy guarantee I win?

    No. It only reduces the house edge to its lowest point. You still lose over time, just more slowly.

    Do you take money from casinos?

    No. notluck has no casino affiliates and no gambling ads.

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