You're down for the night. Not a disaster, but it stings, and you know you could win it back with a few good bets. So you keep going, maybe with bigger stakes. This is called chasing losses, and it's one of the clearest warning signs of gambling getting out of hand.
How common it is
Chasing is one of the nine questions in the Problem Gambling Severity Index, the standard questionnaire researchers use to measure gambling harm. In the UK Gambling Commission's 2023 survey, 16% of people who had gambled in the past year said they had gone back to try to win back money they'd lost at least sometimes: 19.4% of men and 12.6% of women.
Why it feels like it works
Because often, it does. Say you're $200 down and decide to win it back with $50 bets on red at European roulette, stopping as soon as you're even or after about an hour (40 spins). We simulated this 200,000 times:
- About 47% of the time you get back to even and walk away relieved.
- About 34% of the time you end the hour $400 or more down, double where you started.
- On average you finish $239 down: worse than if you'd stopped, after putting another $1,424 through the wheel.
The wins are what make chasing dangerous. Every time it works, it teaches you that it works. The times it doesn't are bigger, and they add up.
The maths underneath
Chasing doesn't change the odds of any bet. What it changes is how much you bet, and every bet carries the house edge. In the example, the extra $1,424 of bets cost about 2.7% on average, roughly $39. Bet bigger or faster to recover, and the expected loss grows with it. That's the same reason the Martingale system doesn't work.
What actually helps
- Decide your limit before you start, and treat it as the price of the evening, not a debt to win back.
- Make stopping easy: many banks let you block gambling payments in their app, and most gambling sites offer deposit limits and time-outs.
- If you notice you're chasing regularly, that's worth taking seriously. Free, confidential help is listed at the bottom of this page.
See what your own habits cost over time in the calculator.
Sources
- UK Gambling Commission: Problem gambling screens
- UK Gambling Commission: Gambling Survey for Great Britain, annual report 2023: Problem Gambling Severity Index